Case Study
India and Pakistan: Movement Toward Peace?
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A Matter of Trust
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The Potential For Disaster
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Playing the U.S. Card
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Conclusion
The Potential For Disaster
Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons. Any conflict between these two nations carries the specter of escalation to a nuclear exchange. The state of high tension that has existed between India and Pakistan in recent years is particularly dangerous. It is an obvious reality that the use of nuclear weapons would have devastating effects for the nations of India and Pakistan, the entire region of South Asia, and the entire planet.
The argument can be made that given the possibility that conflict with Pakistan could culminate in nuclear war, India must do everything in its power to prevent the conflicts that might result in such a global catastrophe. India owes an obligation to those with whom it shares the planet to keep relations with Pakistan as placid as possible. Any initiative that would improve the relationship between India and Pakistan should be explored. Any policy relative to Pakistan that takes the two nations farther from conflict and the world farther from dealing with the consequences of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan should be adopted.
On the other hand, India should not be compelled to place itself in such a disadvantageous position simply because its adversary possesses nuclear weapons. The argument that India must do all in its power to stave off conflict with Pakistan in order to spare the world the possibility of nuclear war places India in an impossible situation. India will inevitably find itself in the position of having to choose between its own national interest and the fate of the planet. Pakistan would have the ultimate trump card in any negotiations with India, with the ability to demand that India make concessions or face the possibility of nuclear war. It would be patently unfair to back India into such a corner. It would be patently ridiculous for India to back itself into that corner.
It is not an inevitability that any conflict between India and Pakistan will escalate into nuclear war. On the contrary, the fact that both India and Pakistan possess a nuclear capability makes the possibility of nuclear war less likely. India knows that a nuclear attack would be matched with a nuclear response by Pakistan. Pakistan knows the same thing-a Pakistani nuclear attack would be met with an Indian counterattack. With the reality of this sort of mutually assured destruction, it is highly unlikely that either of these nations would launch a first strike.
Thus, the specter of nuclear war should not have a disproportionate impact on India’s policy decisions. Certainly India should avoid foolhardy and capricious actions that increase the possibility of nuclear war. However, India need not resort to policies that place its national interests at risk based on the fear of angering Pakistan and prompting the Pakistanis to embark upon the path of nuclear war. By no stretch of the imagination is nuclear war the inevitable result of disagreement with Pakistan. If India is not inclined to engage in a course of negotiations with the Pakistanis that it believes to be inconsistent with its national interest, then it should not. The possession of nuclear weapons by both nations should not force India to the bargaining table to make deals that won’t serve the best interests of India.
Should India exhibit a willingness to engage in negotiations with Pakistan in order to avoid conflicts that might escalate to a nuclear conflict between the two nations? Do you believe that India has an obligation to pursue policies that ease tensions with Pakistan, even if it means placing Indian national interests in a position of secondary importance? Is it reasonable for the rest of the world to insist on this sort of perspective? Put yourself in the position of being a key Indian policymaker. If Pakistan launched a nuclear attack on India, would you support the use of nuclear weapons against Pakistani targets in retaliation? Can you imagine a scenario in which you might support a nuclear first strike against Pakistan?
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