Case Study
India and Pakistan: Movement Toward Peace?
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A Matter of Trust
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The Potential For Disaster
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Playing the U.S. Card
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Conclusion
Playing the U.S. Card
India’s decision will not be made in a vacuum. Other nations will be affected by India’s choices and they will have a significant stake in what India ultimately decides to do about its relationship with Pakistan. Obviously the United States will have a great interest in what happens in this region and this interest creates an interesting dilemma for India: should the interests of the United States be used as a vehicle for peace between India and Pakistan or the means by which India can gain an advantage over Pakistan?
Although the United States towers today as the sole remaining superpower, it cannot lay claim to being the only nation with access to nuclear weapons. This reality is of profound concern to U.S. policymakers. One of the greatest fears of the United States is the escalation of a regional conflict into a nuclear confrontation. Although it would be easy for India to be offended by what it perceives as a patronizing attitude on the part of the United States, India could use the United States’ concern about the possibility of nuclear war in South Asia to its advantage. If the United States is worried about nuclear war between India and Pakistan then it would welcome India’s decision to try and establish peaceful relations between the two nations. India’s movement toward peace and stability would surely be met with great reward from the United States, not only in terms of increased foreign aid from the U.S. government but also through the investment by U.S. companies in Indian projects.
This situation would represent the best of both worlds for India. It would achieve a more stable relationship with Pakistan and it would reap the rewards of a positive relationship with the United States. Both of these factors would allow India to focus on continuing the economic, social, and political development necessary for its emergence as a truly great nation in the Twenty-First Century.
On the other hand, perhaps India should not be so quick to forego a tremendously advantageous situation. Why should it be so generous toward Pakistan when the Pakistanis are making extraordinary blunders on the world scene?
The world has changed greatly since September 11, 2001. The policies of the United States government have shifted significantly since the day of the attacks on targets in New York and Washington. These shifts in the geopolitical landscape have worked decidedly against the interests of Pakistan. With its links to numerous Islamic fundamentalist terrorist organizations, Pakistan is no longer in the good graces of the United States. During the Cold War the United States saw Pakistan as an essential ally as India established close ties with the Soviet Union. A healthy relationship with Pakistan is no longer essential for the United States. The situation is made even worse for Pakistan with its relationship with fundamentalist groups at a point at which the United States has targeted terrorism as its priority on the world scene. Even worse is the revelation that Pakistan was responsible for providing nuclear technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya, nations that the United States sees as outlaw regimes.
Pakistan’s mistakes and missteps have placed India in an extraordinary position. India doesn’t have to cave in to Pakistan to gain the favor of the United States. The United States has grown weary of the actions of Pakistan. At a time in which the United States sees terrorism as the primary problem facing the world, Pakistan finds itself on the wrong side of the divide. Simply by occupying an adversarial relationship with Pakistan, India places itself in the good graces of the United States. India should not make any concessions to the Pakistanis at the bargaining table. In fact this is the perfect time for India to make significant gains at the Pakistanis’ expense. Ironically, any sort of move by India toward rapprochement with Pakistan might be viewed skeptically by the United States. India’s relationship with the United States would be best served by maintaining its adversarial posture toward Pakistan.
Should India use the United States’ concern about nuclear war to build a more stable relationship with Pakistan or should it exploit the United States’ war against terrorism as a means of gaining advantage against Pakistani interests? Should India seek to align itself with the United States or would it be better served to keep its options open with regard to possible alliances with Russia or China? Is economic support from the United States essential to the economic health of India? How should the United States approach the conflict between India and Pakistan?
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